Mid-February 2020 Update
Surely this can't last..
This is my mid-month update
YTD +29.8% Since Jan 1 2020
Crazy I know, but the portfolio had been hammered towards the ends of 2019, so some of this is compensating for the beatdown.
I keep thinking that some of the companies may sell off soon, and indeed they might, but I’m interested in the long game, so while this is transiently pleasant, the view 5 years out is far more important, and as shown at the end of last year, drawdowns will happen and they will hurt.
I accept that I can’t time the market, so I don’t try. It makes more sense to buy companies that I think will outperform over the next 5 years.
$NVTA has gone from red to green. It’s a long term thematic stock choice that will continue to be volatile.
$LVGO dropped into the red after partial lockup expiry and seems to be recovering.
I'm still down on $BZUN, $TWLO, and $ESTC but feel they still have compelling long term stories. $TWLO had a mid 40% revenue growth ER and guided to 30% revenue growth this year. This is likely a low ball estimate but we will see.
Alteryx absolutely smashed its quarterly earnings
Revenue up 75% for Q4
Gross Margins 93%
Op Margin 18%
Dollar based net retention rate of 130%
2019 Revenue $418M
There is nothing that any sane investor would complain about with these results.
More details available here:
I don't own Alibaba but it is a co-investor in $BZUN and owns 17% of the company. Its ER is a good proxy indicator of the Chinese eCommerce market
Tmall online physical goods GMV, excluding unpaid orders, grew 24% year-over-year in the quarter ended December 31, 2019, with strong growth in fast-moving consumer goods (“FMCG”) and consumer electronics.
Not bad, but not particularly exciting to me. It gives a sense of what to expect when Baozun reports. The coronavirus is likely to have a negative impact on China ecommerce over the short to medium term….or maybe people will spend more while stuck @ home? I have no idea.
I added another 55 LVGO to the portfolio at approx 25.6, taking my total to 350 shares.
I will likely add another 50 LVGO to the portfolio and cap my position size there.
$CRWD- AI-based cybersecurity platform
$GSX- Chinese education platform with incredible revenue growth
$LSPD.CA -Canadian POS platform and software
$PAGS- Brazilian payments and micro merchant / digital bank company
$ROKU- Connected TV and streaming leader - Recent excellent ER
$SMAR- Collaborative software platform growing 50% YoY
$STNE- Another Brazilian SMB fintech and software platform - will be competing with PAGS soon
$SQ- US fintech company
$TLRA- Supply-side publisher for connected TV. Works with Hulu and merging with $RUBI
$TXG- manufacturer of next-generation genomics equipment
$YEXT - Brand search and AI platform for intelligence search based on brand info
Threads I’ve been involved in
A long thread of why having an investor mentality is a different thing to a trader’s mentality. I am learning this - making expensive mistakes is the price of admission in stock markets. Optimise your processes, and you’ll optimise your chances of success.
My portfolio investment approach and the use of a loan is outside the risk tolerance of most UK investors
What I’ve read/listened to this week
One of my favourite quotes on the long view is from Reminisces of a Stock Operator
A great long-form letter from a fund on their thesis behind $ESTC (page 8)
Podcasts Worth Your Time
Patrick O’Shaughnessy interviews Chetan Puttagunta of Benchmark Capital who was a VC investor in $MDB and $ESTC
Tobi Lutke of $SHOP Shopify interviewed by Reid Hoffman
Upcoming Earnings releases
Invitae - Feb 19
ZScaler - Feb 20
Elastic - Feb 26
The Trade Desk - Feb 27
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Have a great week!